According to Katalin Tischhauser, Head of Investment Research at Sygnum Bank, Bitcoin's double top pattern above $100,000 warrants trader caution as it could indicate a bearish trend reversal, potentially leading to a drop below $75,000 if the pattern confirms. However, a full-scale crash like 2022 is improbable without a black swan event such as the Terra or FTX collapses, as institutional inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought over $48 billion in net investments since January 2024, per Farside Investors data, creating sticky demand that supports prices. Tischhauser notes that this flow-driven market, with 141 public companies holding BTC, makes the halving cycle less impactful, reducing the likelihood of prolonged downturns.

According to Miles Deutscher on Twitter, many cryptocurrency traders are unclear about the definition of a 'black swan' event, a crucial term for risk management and trading strategy. Understanding black swan events—rare, unpredictable events with major market impact—is vital for anticipating extreme volatility in cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH. Traders need to recognize such risks to better manage positions and avoid unexpected losses, as highlighted by Deutscher's commentary (source: @milesdeutscher on Twitter, June 22, 2025).

According to Miles Deutscher on Twitter, increased discussions about an impending 'black swan' event highlight a contradiction in market psychology, as truly unpredictable events cannot be forecasted by definition (Source: @milesdeutscher, June 21, 2025). For crypto traders, this signals that current sentiment may be overly cautious, potentially leading to reduced volatility and more stable price action for major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH. Monitoring sentiment shifts and market positioning can provide valuable trading signals as crowd fear or complacency often precede significant moves in the digital asset markets.

According to Cas Abbé, the Bitcoin 2025 chart shows notable similarities to the 2020 crash, including a black swan event, a V-shaped recovery within six weeks, and a rapid reclaim of key resistance levels leading to a yearly high. These technical patterns suggest strong bullish momentum, and traders are closely watching for a potential breakout above the $130,000 level. The comparison to 2020’s price action provides traders with actionable insights for timing entries and managing risk in the current market cycle (Source: Cas Abbé on Twitter, May 27, 2025).

According to Gordon (@AltcoinGordon), there is a 57% chance of a black swan event and recession based on astrology. This prediction, while unconventional, suggests traders should be cautious and consider risk management strategies in their trading plans.